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11-30-2016 AUD/USD Long /SL

12/08/2016

11-30-2016 AUD/USD long trade from ascending trendline and fib retracement / support of prior hourly move long.

Type of trade:  Trend continuation on trendline and fib for a move long.  [Added benefit of Stochastic h1 crossover long. However, Stochastic was not fully in oversold area prior to trade initiation – ended up being irrelevant to this trade]

Time of trade:  Overnight orders placed late in Asian session and checked again in the morning appx 6am cst.

001-h4-audusd-11-30-2016-buy-trendline-and-fib-sl-at-tl-break

Result: Trendline failed to hold.  Trade initiated as intended and manually stopped out from solid TL break and close below.

  • Ended up doubling position size and going long at at prior support / resistance for a small bounce long and quickly taking profit bringing the aggregate trade to break even.

002-h1-audusd-11-30-2016-buy-trendline-and-fib-sl-at-tl-break-scalp-long-scale-out-at-be003-m5-audusd-11-30-2016-buy-trendline-and-fib-sl-at-tl-break-dont-long-aud-and-short-euro

Post Trade Analysis:  Decent initial trade (not a stellar setup given the analysis following below, but not bad), correct money management and account leverage management.  Additionally, maybe don’t sell the eur/usd and buy the aud/usd – though I’m not going to address that inter-market analysis in this post.

20/20 Hindsight Review: See graph below.  After placing the trade and upon further tech analysis, I became increasingly convinced this trade was unlikely to continue long / breaking prior hourly tops.  It still seemed reasonable we would see a technical bounce at the trade area for a small overnight trade.

A better trade would have been shorting near the triple top and .382 retracement of the appx h4 swing move short targeting the lower ascending trendline, eventual trendline break and fib levels of that move long.  This trade is further supported by a RSI divergence on the h1 chart.  We saw appx 80 pips short from the trendline break and appx 115 pips from the tripple top to the eventual bottom at appx .73775 falling on the .618 retracement of the hourly swing long.

004 -  H1 AUDUSD 12-06-2016 - review of trade and preferable short setup.png

 

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From → Trades

2 Comments
  1. Big Bubba permalink

    Welcome back to the wars my friend good to hear from you. Keep them coming BB

  2. Thanks BB. I’ve kept a pretty close eye on the market and have been trading some here and there but I think it’s time to become more active again. I hope you, your account and the store are doing well!
    Tim

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