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12-08-2016 EUR/JPY long on trendline

12/09/2016

Trade type: Trend continuation bought on pullback of long move without the anticipation of making a higher high, but at a level of expected support sufficient to offer a reasonable trade.

Entry: Buy Eur/Jpy on lower trendline and fib support of most recent m15 appx move long.

Target: .318 retracement of prior m15 move short

Similar trade: 11/30/16 AUD/USD long move / failed.

Outcome: closed +20 pips to target.  Manually closed out  prior to hitting fib target / could have held on longer.

20/20 review: Bailed early, otherwise an excellent trade.

Chart 1: D 1

Price action above significant moving averages but stalled with potential double top and decreasing rsi momentum.  Likely we’ll see further consolidation into December prior to continuation or reversal of trending move.  This higher level prompted caution in targeting an extended move long.

001-12-09-2016-d1-eurjpy-fib-short-potential-and-trend-continuation

Chart 2: H4

Shows the established trendchannel.  The bottom line has been tested appx 9+ times depending on how you count the hits. More clearly shows the potential double top of prior highs on the .50 back.  Additionally shows the fib pullback of prior long move and buying off trendline and retracement.

002 - 12-09-2016 H4 EURJPY Trendchannel and fib buy.jpg

Chart 3: M5

Clearly shows entry and long move.  Bailed early on minor price action resistance.  Should have waited for at least .236 retracement and resulting price action around that level.

002 - 12-09-2016 m5 EURJPY Fib Target buy.jpg

 

Update:  Still a good trade.  But when you get an entry that good, hold onto it for a while longer:  Graph 4: EUR/JPY Monday 12/12/16 continuation of the long move

004 - 12-12-2016 h1 EURJPY Fib folloup - stay long.jpg

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