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12-12-2016 EUR/USD Short late London Session, target trendline and fib support

12/12/2016

Trade:  Anticipation of further consolidation prior to FOMC, and continuation of impulsive short move on h1 chart.  Leading into pre-US session.  Turned into a rather risky countertrend trade of overnight’s move on low liquidity.

Entry: Minor fib retracement into consolidation zone with hourly wicks lending evidence to shorts but no validation.  Intended to be a short term short scalp into the US open.

Target: Prior support / resistance zone on M15 chart (not shown, but shaded in grey) , frontrun of the .382 fib retracement of overnight’s move higher. AND overnight ascending trendline.

Outcome: + appx 20 pips.  Decent for a scalp but there were better / safer trades to make.

20/20 review:  buy the low shortly after the open as it was on significant hourly and h4 support. or buy the fib retracement and ascending trendline that we used as a target and go with the trend.

Comments:  patience in buying pullbacks of London moves may generally be safer trades than picking tops and scaling into US open and US consolidation.

Chart 1: H4 EUR/USD Sell / Resistance Zone with hourly wicks.

013-12-12-16-h4-eurusd-should-have-bought-on-support-sold-on-minor-fib-fast-tp

Chart 2 and 3: H1 and M15 showing the trade, closer inspection of fib retracement target and ascending trendline.  The M15 wicks at the exit gave excellent long opportunity with confluence of trendline, fib and prior minor support and targeting prior highs or extension (which was reached)

014-12-12-16-h1-eurusd-sell-zone015-12-12-16-m-15-eurusd-target-zone-should-have-bought

 

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