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12-13-2016 EUR/USD Short late London Session rolling over into US open and early afternoon.

12/13/2016

Clearly I prefer shorting the Euro to buying it.  Though – there would be nothing wrong with going the other way on most of these trades.

Trade: Placed overnight short orders into London Open, first entries above daily high moves intended to scale in on H1 / H4 fib retracements of the most recent move short.  First short trade shown on the graph was an accident where I placed a market short having intended placing a larger pending higher up.  It was more leverage than I wanted at this level for a longer term trade.  However, it was placed late in the Asian session with very little movement and at a level looking reasonable for a few pips to the south so I set a tp and let it go for about an hour.  Good example of patience paying off – so long as levels and market conditions are known.

Overnight orders did not hit, and perhaps first order should have been slightly below day’s high move rather than slightly above however an expectation of an overnight stophunt was reasonable (and indeed occurred, but with price stalling on daily high moves rather than above.)   A more reasonable entry appeared to be on the at least the .382 retracement of the h1 short move. And this is the appx level of the two triggered short entries.

At the US open, the trade setup was still valid so left in place. The short trade was triggered at appx 1100 and 1115 central.  Spike movements occurred on medium to low volume and H1 chart shows a significant decrease in RSI momentum on the h1 chart giving evidence to an expected lack of follow through.

Target: Was ascending minor trendline (not shown) and slight frontrun of .5 fib support on the m5/15 chart.  Targets were placed shortly after entry and left / ignored.  I was doing other work and not actively watching the graph.  Were I actively watching, there was no price action indication of a pause at those levels so we should have held the short position longer.

20/20 Review:  Excellent trade entries and initial target for a hands free trade.  Lousy take profit had I been manually watching the trade.  Ended up missing about half the move to the south for no reason. Practice Patience for Pips!

Chart 1:  H1 EUR/USD showing stop hunt moves overnight and final entry at appx US noon.  Entries on .382 fib retracement of most recent move south.  First short move (green arrow) was an accident but paid a few pips anyway.

015-12-13-16-h1-eurusd-stoploss-hunt-short-w-fib-resistance

Chart 2: M5 EUR/USD highlighting short move and trade exit.

017 - 12-13-16 m5 EURUSD short at fib retracement.jpg

Conclusion: A better trade would have been to leave the trade open, and given the time of day / US afternoon either ride it further to the south or look to add to the existing short position should a bounce slightly higher develop.  There is little risk of a sustained directional move at this time.  As of writing this, an appx 20 additional pips were left on the table.

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