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1-9-17 Eur/Usd Scale Short with short term fib targets, ended up holding


Trade: Scale short on .5 and .618 retracements of prior swing move.  Did not place additional pending orders at prior highs because I wanted to limit exposure.

Ended up holding the trade because target not met and price moved higher, but did not take our previous highs. Closed the GBP/USD short at the bottom to limit additional exposure.  Elected not to place additional short entry at top consolidation because didn’t want additional exposure at the FOMC announcement.  Rational was, if price moved higher, I could pick a better entry and if price moved lower anyway, we could close the trade at close to break even.  (second option occurred)

As it turned out, adding would have worked, but I don’t think warranted in this trade.

Entries: .5 fib retracement x2,  .618 fib retracement appx x2 additional to pick the top.

Target: initial short target not met and was slightly better than break even.  Over the weekend, moved the target up to about break even.

This level coinsided with liquidity drying up mid-London and prior to NY opening.  Price failed to break down from here so the trade was manually closed overnight / appx 4:30AM.  Daily and weekly charts are changing my bias to the long side, so I liked this area for buying the Eur/Usd with options to add farther down (did not go long) – but that trade would have been up over 50 pips throughout the day.  This further justified closing the trade at this potential buy level.

Pips: =0 +/- a few (I think actually “-” just a few with commission etc.)

20/20 Hindsight:  Not bad management or entries.  Perhaps I should have moved stops down after second wave lower, or could have added at 1st move above the last entry, but I didn’t want to manage the trade that much.

Chart 1: H1 entries on fibs – note above moving averages (and moving above on h4 charts (not shown)

030 - 01-09-17 h1 EURUSD Scale short on fibs, did not add at top.jpg

Chart 2: m15, showing I should probably have taken profit at the first move lower and in the grey shaded zone.  Still trade management and leverage was acceptable if not ideal.

031 - 01-09-17 m15 EURUSD Close on .382 ret of recent swing high BE. didn't add at top b.c of fomc.jpg





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