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Welcome to my blog. I am a full time primarily technical forex trader. I am going to start keeping this blog primarily as my trading journal for my personal use. In this way, I hope to better keep myself accountable, keep track of my winning and losing trades, and occasionally brain storm and share thoughts about the market, life and whatever else may catch my interest at the time.

While I intend to keep the blog public, I do not plan on any particular public following or input. Again, this is primarily my trading journal. I am not starting a trading service or anything like that. I will illustrate trades that I have taken, plan on taking or should have taken. (as well as ones that didn’t work out well) If you are reading this and have any input feel free to email me at tim.kosen@gmail.com or find me on twitter @kosentrade. Thank you for stopping by.

12-14-2016 EUR/USD Short Overnight / Appx Mid London

Trade: Pre-London short into resistance, fib, ma, and prior resistance confluence

Entries: 1 just below prior highs at candle pattern.  2: Just above prior highs and slight frontrun of .382 Fib 2 additional entries each 25 ish pips higher

Target: No reason to close at current TP.  Trade was closed out manually.  Should have looked for support on lower trendline or .5 – .618 fib ret. If I was trading actively, would have looked to short bounces on the trendline into fib resistance of overnight move.

Pips appx: Entry 1: +14  Entry 2: +32

20/20 hindsight: There was no reason to close there except I woke up tired and didn’t analyze the charts.  Price action indicated further downside potential.

Chart 1: H1 Short entry on fib of prior short move.

020 - 12-19-16 h1 EURUSD short entry on fibs.jpg

Chart 2: M5 chart showing entries and TP (and no reason for the TP at that level)

020 - 12-19-16 m5 EURUSD short entry tp.jpg

12-14-2016 EUR/USD Short Overnight / Appx Mid London

Trade:Consolidation range and mid lengthened scalp trade, shorting highs

Entries:  Slight scale short Eur/Usd into daily highs with additional orders above highs on expectation of further consolidation into FOMC meeting.  Basically, the same trade setup as 12-13-2016.

Note:  I’d like to pretend that last short entry was skill, but sometimes it’s more fun to be lucky than good.  Last short entry was placed at just below prior day’s spike high.  Entry was: 1.06643 High in price was: 1.06651 – Looks like .8 of a pip difference / that’s actually a little too close, as price can spike and fail to enter the trade.  But it’s cool when it happens.

Target: .618 Fib retracement on m5 / 15 chart of prior day’s move long – forgot to set take profit orders, so manually closed out after checking pre US open.

20/20 Hindsight:  Excellent entries and execution.  Don’t forget to place TP before going to bed.  That’s kinda dumb!

Chart 1: H4 consolidation around the .382 fib / basically the same chart as yesterday.018-12-14-16-h4-eurusd-short-on-fib-and-ma-same-as-yesterday

Chart 2: M5 entries and exit / shown exit was taken manually

019-12-14-16-h5-eurusd-tp

12-13-2016 EUR/USD Short late London Session rolling over into US open and early afternoon.

Clearly I prefer shorting the Euro to buying it.  Though – there would be nothing wrong with going the other way on most of these trades.

Trade: Placed overnight short orders into London Open, first entries above daily high moves intended to scale in on H1 / H4 fib retracements of the most recent move short.  First short trade shown on the graph was an accident where I placed a market short having intended placing a larger pending higher up.  It was more leverage than I wanted at this level for a longer term trade.  However, it was placed late in the Asian session with very little movement and at a level looking reasonable for a few pips to the south so I set a tp and let it go for about an hour.  Good example of patience paying off – so long as levels and market conditions are known.

Overnight orders did not hit, and perhaps first order should have been slightly below day’s high move rather than slightly above however an expectation of an overnight stophunt was reasonable (and indeed occurred, but with price stalling on daily high moves rather than above.)   A more reasonable entry appeared to be on the at least the .382 retracement of the h1 short move. And this is the appx level of the two triggered short entries.

At the US open, the trade setup was still valid so left in place. The short trade was triggered at appx 1100 and 1115 central.  Spike movements occurred on medium to low volume and H1 chart shows a significant decrease in RSI momentum on the h1 chart giving evidence to an expected lack of follow through.

Target: Was ascending minor trendline (not shown) and slight frontrun of .5 fib support on the m5/15 chart.  Targets were placed shortly after entry and left / ignored.  I was doing other work and not actively watching the graph.  Were I actively watching, there was no price action indication of a pause at those levels so we should have held the short position longer.

20/20 Review:  Excellent trade entries and initial target for a hands free trade.  Lousy take profit had I been manually watching the trade.  Ended up missing about half the move to the south for no reason. Practice Patience for Pips!

Chart 1:  H1 EUR/USD showing stop hunt moves overnight and final entry at appx US noon.  Entries on .382 fib retracement of most recent move south.  First short move (green arrow) was an accident but paid a few pips anyway.

015-12-13-16-h1-eurusd-stoploss-hunt-short-w-fib-resistance

Chart 2: M5 EUR/USD highlighting short move and trade exit.

017 - 12-13-16 m5 EURUSD short at fib retracement.jpg

Conclusion: A better trade would have been to leave the trade open, and given the time of day / US afternoon either ride it further to the south or look to add to the existing short position should a bounce slightly higher develop.  There is little risk of a sustained directional move at this time.  As of writing this, an appx 20 additional pips were left on the table.

12-12-2016 EUR/USD Short late London Session, target trendline and fib support

Trade:  Anticipation of further consolidation prior to FOMC, and continuation of impulsive short move on h1 chart.  Leading into pre-US session.  Turned into a rather risky countertrend trade of overnight’s move on low liquidity.

Entry: Minor fib retracement into consolidation zone with hourly wicks lending evidence to shorts but no validation.  Intended to be a short term short scalp into the US open.

Target: Prior support / resistance zone on M15 chart (not shown, but shaded in grey) , frontrun of the .382 fib retracement of overnight’s move higher. AND overnight ascending trendline.

Outcome: + appx 20 pips.  Decent for a scalp but there were better / safer trades to make.

20/20 review:  buy the low shortly after the open as it was on significant hourly and h4 support. or buy the fib retracement and ascending trendline that we used as a target and go with the trend.

Comments:  patience in buying pullbacks of London moves may generally be safer trades than picking tops and scaling into US open and US consolidation.

Chart 1: H4 EUR/USD Sell / Resistance Zone with hourly wicks.

013-12-12-16-h4-eurusd-should-have-bought-on-support-sold-on-minor-fib-fast-tp

Chart 2 and 3: H1 and M15 showing the trade, closer inspection of fib retracement target and ascending trendline.  The M15 wicks at the exit gave excellent long opportunity with confluence of trendline, fib and prior minor support and targeting prior highs or extension (which was reached)

014-12-12-16-h1-eurusd-sell-zone015-12-12-16-m-15-eurusd-target-zone-should-have-bought

 

12-08-2016 EUR/JPY long on trendline

Trade type: Trend continuation bought on pullback of long move without the anticipation of making a higher high, but at a level of expected support sufficient to offer a reasonable trade.

Entry: Buy Eur/Jpy on lower trendline and fib support of most recent m15 appx move long.

Target: .318 retracement of prior m15 move short

Similar trade: 11/30/16 AUD/USD long move / failed.

Outcome: closed +20 pips to target.  Manually closed out  prior to hitting fib target / could have held on longer.

20/20 review: Bailed early, otherwise an excellent trade.

Chart 1: D 1

Price action above significant moving averages but stalled with potential double top and decreasing rsi momentum.  Likely we’ll see further consolidation into December prior to continuation or reversal of trending move.  This higher level prompted caution in targeting an extended move long.

001-12-09-2016-d1-eurjpy-fib-short-potential-and-trend-continuation

Chart 2: H4

Shows the established trendchannel.  The bottom line has been tested appx 9+ times depending on how you count the hits. More clearly shows the potential double top of prior highs on the .50 back.  Additionally shows the fib pullback of prior long move and buying off trendline and retracement.

002 - 12-09-2016 H4 EURJPY Trendchannel and fib buy.jpg

Chart 3: M5

Clearly shows entry and long move.  Bailed early on minor price action resistance.  Should have waited for at least .236 retracement and resulting price action around that level.

002 - 12-09-2016 m5 EURJPY Fib Target buy.jpg

 

Update:  Still a good trade.  But when you get an entry that good, hold onto it for a while longer:  Graph 4: EUR/JPY Monday 12/12/16 continuation of the long move

004 - 12-12-2016 h1 EURJPY Fib folloup - stay long.jpg

12-01-2016 EUR/USD Scale Short in Consolidation

Basically the same strategy as the prior trade.  Shorting on a minor fib retracement of prior H4 move short.  Shorting on H4 100 EMA.  Topping candle Price Action for entries on H1 chart

Chart 1: H4 shows fib retracement, EMA and entries short

009-12-01-16-h4-eurusd-short-at-levels-fib-ma-support-beautiful-trade

Chart 2: H1, three hourly entries on or about prior support / resistance.

Entry 1: on prior resistance and candle (non confirmed) pattern

Entry 2:Slight frontrun or the H4 ema and fib retracement (to make sure we entered short at close to desired level)

Entry 3: short on the EMA at desired entry level. Stop losses slightly above these areas for a reasonable short move.

010-12-01-16-h1-eurusd-short-at-levels-first-short-bad-tl-break-2nd-short-level-only-3rd-short-levels-and-pa-had-4th-short-above

Chart 3: M15 showing entries and m15 patterns – Entry 2 placed pre London session at top end of afternoon consolidation zone. Entry 3 entered as a order short in an attempt to catch the move short.

Entire trade closed out on take profit order placed at slight frontrun of .382 fib retracement of prior m15 swing move long.

011-12-01-16-m15-eurusd-tp-on-fib-318

Conclusion: Excellent trade and execution with proper position sizing, account and leverage management.  Good example of not needing to catch all of a move to have a good trade.  I could have closed out this trade on a lower fib retracement, but in consolidating markets, lower fibs are probably better buying opportunities than trade targets.

This is a good strategy in consolidating markets where there is minimal risk of strong moves one direction or the other. The trader should stay away from news and election announcements when positions are open – or adjust margin accordingly.

Chart 4 below shows H1 of the euro and this buying opportunity at the .5 and .618 fib retracements (did not enter those trades as was not in the office or watching price action)

012-12-01-16-h1-eurusd-tp-on-fib-318-and-potential-buy-on-ma

11-29-2016 EUR/USD Scale short

EUR/USD Scale short on higher resistance, in a consolidating daily market

Type of Trade: Consolidation and scaling on lower timeframe charts based on support / resistance and m15 entries. All trades were placed with limit sell orders and this trade was not actively watched until initiated.  Goal wasn’t to pick a long swing move, but grab pips as the daily euro graph consolidated and bounced around.

The following shows how a trader can trad counter-trend, scale in and “add to a losing trade” and make money.  This is a favorite strategy when the market is in a consolidation pattern.  Money management, position size management, and leverage management are key.

Strategy:

  • Short the long ish move on fib pullbacks and prior resistance zones / watching for spike moves long.
  • Start with a small position size.  Each short position added is larger than the last (though not always necessary).
  • Max position exposure for account balance is in place.
  • Entire group of trades should be considered one trade.
  • Acceptable strategy when there isn’t time to watch the market in depth

006-eurusd-m15-11-29-2016-overview

Additional notes:  Accidentally closed out portions of positions early (first large red buy arrow and re-entered short with the same position size as seen in the following two charts:

001 - 11-29-16 EURUSDscale short, accidental closeout early.jpg

004 - 11-29-16 m5 EURUSD scale short, accidental closeout early - final trade.jpg

6 total entries short. and take profit for entire position on the .382 fib retracement and frontrun of prior support / resistance zone of the most recent M15 swing higher as seen below:

005 - 11-29-16 m15 EURUSD scale short, reentry.jpg

Conclusion: Excellent trade.  Good entries and looked to re-short position higher (and did in the next trade).  A little sloppy in the execution (early close out) and entries could have been cleaner.  But not bad.