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Welcome to my blog. I am a full time primarily technical forex trader. I am going to start keeping this blog primarily as my trading journal for my personal use. In this way, I hope to better keep myself accountable, keep track of my winning and losing trades, and occasionally brain storm and share thoughts about the market, life and whatever else may catch my interest at the time.

While I intend to keep the blog public, I do not plan on any particular public following or input. Again, this is primarily my trading journal. I am not starting a trading service or anything like that. I will illustrate trades that I have taken, plan on taking or should have taken. (as well as ones that didn’t work out well) If you are reading this and have any input feel free to email me at tim.kosen@gmail.com or find me on twitter @kosentrade. Thank you for stopping by.

3-21-17 Eur/Usd scale short on prior H4 resistance

Trade:  Scale short on prior h4 / daily resistance and 50% back of decent sized daily move lower

Entries: 1: at current day’s consolidation just prior to tops to catch a move, 2: at tops of that daily consolidation 3: at spike of tops and at consolidation a few days before 2-1-17 ish consolidation 4: further into that prior consolidation.

Additional orders at prior spike highs not reached in this trade

Note on entries: small entry orders with leverage and risk management in mind to reduce maximum exposure.

This was looking to catch a minor swing move lower that did not materialize.  Instead, it caught some pips into consolidation.  As consolidation formed and as lows were not agressively taken out, it became less likely we would see a significant retracement or trend change late in the trading day.  Trade was closed out in mid Asian session with the intent of taking profit and re-shorting further up in the Euro session.  Those entries triggered overnight, with adjusted and corrected position sizing taken into account and are currently in play.

Target: Initial short term target was .382 retracement of prior minor move long with the desire to hold for a deeper pullback should it happen.  As we had trouble breaking and holding below the .23 and considering the time of day the final attempt lower was made – the trade was manually closed at rejection of prior lows.  (On my phone at the gym during leg’s day I might add.)

Result:+47+31+21+2.3 = 101.9  not accounting for added position size on the scale short.

20/20 Hindsight:  Not bad entries.  Sometimes I wonder why I don’t just buy into the direction of a trend more often.  That would seem like a more straightforward approach here.  But, pips is pips.

 

H4 Eur/Usd showing the fib retracement and shorting at prior consolidation higher, Last red arrow is current short trade triggered overnight

047 - 03-21-17 h4 EURUSD sold on 50 back and days consolidation zones

H1 Eur/Usd showing entry and exit levels and price not making it convincingly below the .23 retracement.

048 - 03-21-17 h1 EURUSD original target at .382 but no momentum to get below, so manually closed out at prior lows

Aud/Usd sell into daily resistance

Trade: Short into daily resistance with orders higher.

Entries: Small position at prior h1 resistance.  Additional orders on recent resistance not triggered

Target: Possibility for a longer term trade and further acceleration to the south based on daily and weekly levels.  This trade, just targeting prior support and consolidation zones.

Result: +48

20/20 Hindsight:  Good Trade.  Further consolidation in progress.  Likely look for longer term swing short at higher levels.

Aud/Usd daily resistance

005-d1-audusd-3-01-2017-short-into-daily-resistance

Aud/Usd M15 entry and exit

006-m15-audusd-3-01-2017-tp-support

Eur/Usd buy on prior day’s fibs

Trade:  Scale long on retracement of prior fib move.

Entries: 1 at appx day’s consolidation – closed at -4 b/c price wasn’t going the right direction. 2: .382 fib retracement 3: .5 retracement 4: .618 retracement

note on entries: I drew the fib to the bottom of closed candle price action on the bottom rather than the spike lower because that lined the fibs up better with consolidation zones.  I don’t always draw it like this.

Target: All targets placed by orders, and in this case .382 of move lower.  If I were day trading, it would have been useful to look at price action in addition and likely hold the move longer.  But, move spiked on Trump Press conference so sometimes it’s better to take profit when it’s there.

Result: -4-19+12+44=33 not accounting for added position size on the scale long.

20/20 Hindsight:  Great entries and exit for setting orders.  Should have held longer or watched if in front of the screen.

 

Chart 1: H1 scale long on fibs

032-01-11-17-h1-eurusd-buy-on-fibs

 

Chart 2: M5, Take profit on fib move long

 

033 - 01-11-17 m5 EURUSD close on .382ret.jpg

 

1-9-17 Eur/Usd Scale Short with short term fib targets, ended up holding

Trade: Scale short on .5 and .618 retracements of prior swing move.  Did not place additional pending orders at prior highs because I wanted to limit exposure.

Ended up holding the trade because target not met and price moved higher, but did not take our previous highs. Closed the GBP/USD short at the bottom to limit additional exposure.  Elected not to place additional short entry at top consolidation because didn’t want additional exposure at the FOMC announcement.  Rational was, if price moved higher, I could pick a better entry and if price moved lower anyway, we could close the trade at close to break even.  (second option occurred)

As it turned out, adding would have worked, but I don’t think warranted in this trade.

Entries: .5 fib retracement x2,  .618 fib retracement appx x2 additional to pick the top.

Target: initial short target not met and was slightly better than break even.  Over the weekend, moved the target up to about break even.

This level coinsided with liquidity drying up mid-London and prior to NY opening.  Price failed to break down from here so the trade was manually closed overnight / appx 4:30AM.  Daily and weekly charts are changing my bias to the long side, so I liked this area for buying the Eur/Usd with options to add farther down (did not go long) – but that trade would have been up over 50 pips throughout the day.  This further justified closing the trade at this potential buy level.

Pips: =0 +/- a few (I think actually “-” just a few with commission etc.)

20/20 Hindsight:  Not bad management or entries.  Perhaps I should have moved stops down after second wave lower, or could have added at 1st move above the last entry, but I didn’t want to manage the trade that much.

Chart 1: H1 entries on fibs – note above moving averages (and moving above on h4 charts (not shown)

030 - 01-09-17 h1 EURUSD Scale short on fibs, did not add at top.jpg

Chart 2: m15, showing I should probably have taken profit at the first move lower and in the grey shaded zone.  Still trade management and leverage was acceptable if not ideal.

031 - 01-09-17 m15 EURUSD Close on .382 ret of recent swing high BE. didn't add at top b.c of fomc.jpg

 

 

 

1-5-17 Gbp/Usd Scale Short Overnight trade with quick TP

Trade: Scale short on GBP/USD fib and candle topping pattern for short term trade targeting fib retracement of recent H1 swing move higher

This trade was taken in combination with a Eur/Usd short placed at the same time, so it was fairly low leverage.

Entries: .618 retracement of prior h1 swing move higher; .76 of same move and additional at slightly above previous highs

Target: .5 fib retracement of H1 swing move high / prior daily move and signifigant prior resistance zone confluence.

Pips appx:  +63+47+18=129

20/20 Hindsight:  Good exit and close before FOMC day.  Next time, perhaps don’t short the GBP and EUR the evening before FOMC, less movement, and flexability if things go wrong.  Otherwise, good entries, management and trade exit.

Chart 1: H4, entries at fibs, topping pattern and MA

 

002-1-5-2017-h4-gbpusd-short-on-prior-highs-fib-ret-and-ma-should-have-bought

Chart 2: M15, exits on Fib retracement of prior move higher (next time consider TP a little quicker or trail stops, that was a little too close to the spike long before the FOMC move.  Consider moving stops down to consolidation pattern rather than a hard tp)

003-1-5-2017-h5-gbpusd-tp-on-fib-retrace-next-time-buy-here-overnight-maybe

1-2-2017 EUR/USD Scale Short Swing on low leq

Happy 2017.

Trade:originally a short scalp on low liquidity between Christmas and NY – turned into a scale short swing trade after a large spike higher in price.  This low liquidity spike was not significantly followed by any other pairs lending one to believe it would not follow through on the eur/usd and that price would continue its short move at least back to prior consolidation.
Entries: Short 1-3 were several small short entries at prior day’s highs with short term take profit targets.

Entries 2: Short 4-5 scale short on the liquidity spike and on prior fib retracements

Entries 3: Short 6-8 Additional scale short on overnight low liquidity spike – entered manually on phone trading and included appx 10 pips of slippage on each trade (adding up to a significant amount) / when trading in low liquidity conditions with a faster moving market, consider entry orders when practical rather than market orders especially on the mobile device.  The last trade #8, I placed just to verify the amount of slippage.

Target:  Final target was a frontrun of the .618 retracement of the most recent minor swing move higher on m5 chart shown below.

Generally, I would target a little higher on the fib for this trade, but the H4 chart showed a significant breakdown and close of prior lows with the next sensible target being prior h4 highs and .618 retracement of the move higher.  Breakdown of shaded area shown on the graph (top shaded area) and target of lower shaded area also shown.  (chart 3 below)

Pips: -35-10+7+22+55+74+81+87 = 282 (non weighted for position size)

20/20 Hindsight: Would not recommend this trade setup under normal market conditions.  This is a good example of the importance of knowing the market you’re trading.  This trade was taken with low position size and acceptable risk management.  The only reason I was comfortable adding to the position on the spikes higher was because of the christmas – new year market conditions.  There was a high likelihood the move higher would lack followthrough and would retrace significantly rather than begin a new impulsive move to the long side.

Final exit appears appropriate.  May consider the aforementioned price / m5 crossover for a more aggressive take profit rather than standard take profit on favorable levels.  That would require additional trade management however and we can’t be watching the markets all the time.

In this instance, that exit would have yielded appx 13 additional pips.  Something to think about.

Also, consider revision of policy of not trading between new Christmas and New Years.  This was a nice move.

Chart 1:  h4shows initial shorts on prior highs for small move to the short side and additional entries higher

025 - 01-02-17 h4 EURUSD Attempt short at consolidation, re short higher levels.jpg

Chart 2: m15 – Closeup of additional entries showing scale short

026-01-02-17-m15-eurusd-scale-short

Chart 3: H4 showing price breakdown of top shaded level, sig. trendline break – at the time, any potential short term upside moves (overnight / London open) looked like we could reasonably expect them to be limited to short term h4 consolidation in the preceding few candles.  (who knows if that’s reasonable or not, but it worked so that’s cool.)  Take profit was a fairly aggressive level in terms of length of move. But at the time it appeared to be the the most sen sensible place for price to meet resistance perhaps prior to NY open.  Considering the last bit of this move played out as expected we can call it a successful trade though not ideal.

027-01-02-17-h4-eurusd-why-i-didnt-close-on-the-5-fib-retracement-breakdown-of-shaded-area

Chart 4: M5 – final take profit of trade on the .618 retracement of prior swing move higher.  Also shows how the price / m5 ma crossover would have given a few more pips. (appx 13)

028-01-02-17-m5-eurusd-final-tp-on-frontrun-of-618-ret

Chart 5: M1 (don’t trade off M1 charts, but included here to show entries) – price slipped on those last 3 entries by appx 10 pips each.  Likely due to mobile device trading combined with market orders.  At least on the mobile device, price, the graph and entries don’t line up as well as they should when price is moving quickly.

028-1-01-02-17-m1-eurusd-final-scale-short-w-10-pips-slipp-on-low-lequidity

12-28-2016 EUR/USD Short Orders Overnight / Closed Pre US open

Trade: Pre-London orders set on prior resistance and higher level fibs
Entries: 2 scale short on most recent m5 high. 1 scale short at prior highs and final scale short on .382 fib retracement of recent move short with orders to short at .5 retracement if price gets there
Target: Bottom of prior consolidation zone and frontrun of .5 fib retracement of most recent m15 move north
Pips: +25+28+36+45=134
20/20 Hindsight: Overall, a very good trade. Excellent entries. Absoluteley out too early on the move but still caught a good portion of it. Consider a M5 MA / Price crossover as more of a guideline for exits in combination with support and resistance. Just a thought. It’s never fun to leave 50% of a move on the table. But, you have to take profit somewhere.

Also, consider revision of policy of not trading between new Christmas and New Years.  This was a nice move.

Chart 1: H1 shows recent tops, and fib retracements with additional orders still in place

022-12-28-16-h1-eurusd-scale-short-on-fib-and-resistance

Chart 2: M 15, fib and support zone take profit area

023 - 12-28-16 m15 EURUSD TP.jpg

Chart 3: M 5, consider additional criteria for TP as we missed a lot of this move. M5 ma, price crossover perhaps in combination with support / resistance

024-12-28-16-m5-eurusd-consider-a-ma-as-a-guide-for-a-stoploss